A Stochastic Volatility Model With Realized Measures for Option Pricing

Based on the fact that realized measures of volatility are affected by measurement errors, we introduce a new family of discrete-time stochastic volatility models having two measurement equations relating both observed returns and realized measures to the latent conditional variance. A semi-analytical option pricing framework is developed for this class of models. In addition, we provide analytical filtering and smoothing recursions for the basic specification of the model, and an effective MCMC algorithm for its richer variants. The empirical analysis shows the effectiveness of filtering and smoothing realized measures in inflating the latent volatility persistence—the crucial parameter in pricing Standard and Poor’s 500 Index options

Prospective surveillance of multivariate spatial disease data

Surveillance systems are often focused on more than one disease within a predefined area. On those occasions when outbreaks of disease are likely to be correlated, the use of multivariate surveillance techniques integrating information from multiple diseases allows us to improve the sensitivity and timeliness of outbreak detection. In this article, we present an extension of the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate to monitor multivariate spatial disease data. The proposed surveillance technique, which is defined for each small area and time period as the conditional predictive distribution of those counts of disease higher than expected given the data observed up to the previous time period, alerts us to both small areas of increased disease incidence and the diseases causing the alarm within each area. We investigate its performance within the framework of Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models using a simulation study. An application to diseases of the respiratory system in South Carolina is finally presented

Ultimate Pólya Gamma Samplers–Efficient MCMC for Possibly Imbalanced Binary and Categorical Data

Modeling binary and categorical data is one of the most commonly encountered tasks of applied statisticians and econometricians. While Bayesian methods in this context have been available for decades now, they often require a high level of familiarity with Bayesian statistics or suffer from issues such as low sampling efficiency. To contribute to the accessibility of Bayesian models for binary and categorical data, we introduce novel latent variable representations based on Pólya-Gamma random variables for a range of commonly encountered logistic regression models. From these latent variable representations, new Gibbs sampling algorithms for binary, binomial, and multinomial logit models are derived. All models allow for a conditionally Gaussian likelihood representation, rendering extensions to more complex modeling frameworks such as state space models straightforward. However, sampling efficiency may still be an issue in these data augmentation based estimation frameworks. To counteract this, novel marginal data augmentation strategies are developed and discussed in detail. The merits of our approach are illustrated through extensive simulations and real data applications. Supplementary materials for this article are available online

Count time series prediction using particle filters

Non-Gaussian dynamic models are proposed to analyse time series of counts. Three models are proposed for responses generated by a Poisson, a negative binomial and a mixture of Poisson distributions. The parameters of these distributions are allowed to vary dynamically according to state space models. Particle filters or sequential Monte Carlo methods are used for inference and forecasting purposes. The performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated by two simulation studies for the Poisson and the negative binomial models. The methodology is illustrated by considering data consisting of medical contacts of schoolchildren suffering from asthma in England

Model-Based Clustering and Classification of Functional Data

The problem of complex data analysis is a central topic of modern statistical science and learning systems and is becoming of broader interest with the increasing prevalence of high-dimensional data. The challenge is to develop statistical models and autonomous algorithms that are able to acquire knowledge from raw data for exploratory analysis, which can be achieved through clustering techniques or to make predictions of future data via classification (i.e., discriminant analysis) techniques. Latent data models, including mixture model-based approaches are one of the most popular and successful approaches in both the unsupervised context (i.e., clustering) and the supervised one (i.e, classification or discrimination). Although traditionally tools of multivariate analysis, they are growing in popularity when considered in the framework of functional data analysis (FDA). FDA is the data analysis paradigm in which the individual data units are functions (e.g., curves, surfaces), rather than simple vectors. In many areas of application, the analyzed data are indeed often available in the form of discretized values of functions or curves (e.g., time series, waveforms) and surfaces (e.g., 2d-images, spatio-temporal data). This functional aspect of the data adds additional difficulties compared to the case of a classical multivariate (non-functional) data analysis. We review and present approaches for model-based clustering and classification of functional data. We derive well-established statistical models along with efficient algorithmic tools to address problems regarding the clustering and the classification of these high-dimensional data, including their heterogeneity, missing information, and dynamical hidden structure. The presented models and algorithms are illustrated on real-world functional data analysis problems from several application area

Accelerating Bayesian hierarchical clustering of time series data with a randomised algorithm

We live in an era of abundant data. This has necessitated the development of new and innovative statistical algorithms to get the most from experimental data. For example, faster algorithms make practical the analysis of larger genomic data sets, allowing us to extend the utility of cutting-edge statistical methods. We present a randomised algorithm that accelerates the clustering of time series data using the Bayesian Hierarchical Clustering (BHC) statistical method. BHC is a general method for clustering any discretely sampled time series data. In this paper we focus on a particular application to microarray gene expression data. We define and analyse the randomised algorithm, before presenting results on both synthetic and real biological data sets. We show that the randomised algorithm leads to substantial gains in speed with minimal loss in clustering quality. The randomised time series BHC algorithm is available as part of the R package BHC, which is available for download from Bioconductor (version 2.10 and above) via http://bioconductor.org/packages/2.10/bioc/html/BHC.html. We have also made available a set of R scripts which can be used to reproduce the analyses carried out in this paper. These are available from the following URL. https://sites.google.com/site/randomisedbhc/